2017新GRE写作官方题库Argument全题解析汇总(125)

>>GRE写作：2017新GRE写作官方题库Argument全题解析汇总(125)

>>GRE考试辅导：精品课程高端指导

GRE官方题库原题125

The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.

"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

题目翻译

冬季非常寒冷的美国东北部的房屋，一直都使用传统的油料作为采暖的主要燃料。去年该地区经历了90天低于往年平均气温的严寒，并且气象预测家们预测这种天气会持续未来数年。而且，去年由于人口增长，本地建造了很多的房屋。按此趋势，我们预测对于油料的需求将会增加，同时也建议对CI公司投资，该公司的不要业务之一就是家用采暖油料的零售。

题目分析

1. 作者无法通过去年的例子和天气预报员的预测来说明对油的需求会增长。因为我们不清楚去年的90天与往年相比是增长了还是下降了，因此不清楚用油的趋势如何，所以我们不能武断地认为用油的需求会增长。

2. 平行地，新建的房屋数量变多同样不能得到用油需求增长的结论。首先，作者没有说这些新的房屋是否会继续用油来作为供热能源;其次，即使会继续用油，这个地区总的用油需求未必会因此而有很大的变化。所以作者需要更多的证据来说明油的需求会增长。

3. 即使用油需求会增长，C公司也未必能从中受益。因为C公司在当地的市场占有率不一定很高，所以新增的需求未必会让他们来消化，所以C公司未必会因此而盈利。

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