2017新GRE写作官方题库Argument全题解析汇总(80)

>>GRE写作：2017新GRE写作官方题库Argument全题解析汇总(80)

>>GRE考试辅导：精品课程高端指导

GRE官方题库原题80

The following appeared as a letter to the editor from a Central Plaza store owner.

"Over the past two years, the number of shoppers in Central Plaza has been steadily decreasing while the popularity of skateboarding has increased dramatically. Many Central Plaza store owners believe that the decrease in their business is due to the number of skateboard users in the plaza. There has also been a dramatic increase in the amount of litter and vandalism throughout the plaza. Thus, we recommend that the city prohibit skateboarding in Central Plaza. If skateboarding is prohibited here, we predict that business in Central Plaza will return to its previously high levels."

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

题目翻译

过去两年中，中心广场的顾客数量稳步下降与此同时滑板却急剧增加。很多中心广场的店主认为顾客数量下滑是由于玩滑板人数的增加。同时整个广场废弃物和公物损毁也大大增加。因此，我们建议应该在中心广场禁止玩滑板。如果禁止的话，我们估计中心广场的生意将会恢复到以前的水平。

题目分析

1. 消费者的减少与滑板者数量的增多并不一定有因果关系。如两者只是时间上偶然的巧合。

2. 即使滑板者的增多与消费者的减少是因果关系，也没有证据表明他们与犯罪的增多有因果关系。说不定是消费者的减少导致的滑板者的增多，因果可能不存在或者甚至倒置。

3. 即使因果关系成立，该政策也不一定能解决问题。假设犯罪者已经在当地扎根，禁止滑板也不一定能够将这些人赶走，从而无法使犯罪率降低，消费者人数上升。

4. 即使因果关系成立，即使建议的充分性成立，也不代表建议一定必要。假设有更好的手段来做到以上几点，如招商引资、加强警力监管等，就没有必要禁止人民群众喜闻乐见的滑板活动。

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