2017新GRE写作官方题库Argument全题解析汇总(76)

>>GRE写作：2017新GRE写作官方题库Argument全题解析汇总(76)

>>GRE考试辅导：精品课程高端指导

GRE官方题库原题76

The following appeared in a recommendation from the President of the Amburg Chamber of Commerce.

"Last October, the city of Belleville installed high-intensity lighting in its central business district, and vandalism there declined almost immediately. The city of Amburg, on the other hand, recently instituted police patrols on bicycles in its business district. However, the rate of vandalism here remains constant. Since high-intensity lighting is clearly the most effective way to combat crime, we recommend using the money that is currently being spent on bicycle patrols to install such lighting throughout Amburg. If we install this high-intensity lighting, we will significantly reduce crime rates in Amburg."

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

题目翻译

去年10月Belleville市在其中央商业区安装了高照度灯光，那里的破坏公物的行为几乎立即减少。Amburg市最近开始在其中央商业区安排警察骑自行车巡逻，但破坏公物的发生率并没有变化。由于高照度灯光显然是震慑犯罪的最有效途径，我们建议应该把原来用于巡逻的开销用来在Amburg全市安装这种灯光。如果我们安装这样的高照度灯，那么Amburg的犯罪率会大幅降低。

题目分析

1. 首先，犯罪率的下降与照明措施的执行不一定是因果逻辑关系。因为可能有其他措施导致了犯罪率的下降，比如法律法规的严格执行、就业率的上升、枪具刀具的管制等等。

2. 即使因果关系成立，作者将某地成功的措施照搬到另一地的类比也不一定是正确的。因为两地犯罪形式等有所不同，如果该地的犯罪形式不受光线影响，那么加强照明不会对犯罪率产生影响。

3. 即使方案能够降低犯罪率，它也可能有负面影响，或是有更好的其他方案。负面影响可能包含了硬件设施改造所需要的经费和技术;而其他更好的方案则可能有继续加强警力监管、完善法律法规等。

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