2018雅思阅读素材：中美经济关系紧张

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The silk-silver axis,The world’s most important economic relationship is also its most fraught

IN 1784 the Empress of China set sail from New York, on the first American trade mission to China. Carrying ginseng, lead and woolen cloth, the merchants aboard dreamed of cracking open the vast Asian market. But the real profit, they found, came on their return, when they brought Chinese teas and porcelain to America. As other ships followed in its wake, the pattern became clear. Americans wanted more from China than Chinese wanted from America, and the difference was made up with a steady outflow of silver from America into China. The Empress had launched not just commercial ties between the two great countries but also an American deficit in its trade with China.

1784年，中国皇后号帆船从纽约起航，踏上美国对中国的首次通商之旅。船上满载着人参、铅和毛料，商人们渴望能够打开广阔的亚洲市场。但他们发现，从中国带回的茶叶和瓷器才是真正的利润之源。随着其他船只步其后尘，这种贸易模式逐渐清晰起来。美国人想要的中国货多过中国人想要的美国货，其中的差额由美国源源不断地向中国支付银元来补足。中国皇后号不仅开启了两个大国间的商业联系，也开启了美国对中国的贸易逆差。

but nowadays electronic gadgets. In recent years it has reached a record size (see chart 1). When Xi Jinping, China’s president, meets Donald Trump—a meeting is reportedly planned in Florida early in April—the deficit will top the agenda. In his run to the White House, Mr Trump promised a combative stance against China on trade. Some expect America to slap punitive tariffs on Chinese goods, triggering an all-out trade war. Others think a grand bargain that defuses tensions is possible.

这种赤字的现代化身仍由消费品贸易驱动，只不过货物变成了电子产品。近年来这一赤字已达到新高(见图表1)。据报道，中国国家主席习近平将于4月初在佛罗里达与特朗普会晤，届时贸易赤字将成为首要议题。在总统竞选期间，特朗普承诺将就贸易问题对中国采取强硬姿态。有人预计美国会对中国商品征收惩罚性关税，引发全面贸易战。其他人则认为双方可能会达成“大妥协”以缓和紧张局势。

Many American businesses, bruised in their dealings with China, cautiously welcome a harder line. For their part, Chinese businesses feel unjustly singled out. Both sides are nervous, conscious that the world’s most important economic relationship is also its most complex. America and China are bound together by cross-border flows of goods, cash, people and ideas that are bigger than ever. These ties have greatly benefited the two countries’ prosperity. A rupture would be severely damaging for both.

许多在跟中国打交道时吃过苦头的美国企业谨慎欢迎政府更强硬地处理经贸关系。而中国企业觉得独独自己成为矛头所向有失公允。双方都有些紧张，都意识到世界上最重要的经济关系也是最复杂的。中美之间货物、资金、人员和思想的跨国往来规模空前，关系密不可分，大大有利于两国的繁荣。关系一旦破裂，两方都会严重受损。

The original sin, for Mr Trump’s most hawkish advisers, is the trade imbalance. Before China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, China accounted for less than a quarter of America’s total trade deficit; over the past five years, it has made up two-thirds. Peter Navarro, head of Mr Trump’s new National Trade Council, sees the deficit as a drag on America’s economy. Close it, he argues, and America’s GDP will be bigger. And he sees a way to do so: take on China over its unfair trade practices, from currency meddling to export subsidies. In 2012 he released a documentary, “Death by China”, as a call to arms.

特朗普的强硬派顾问大多认为，双边关系的原罪是贸易不平衡。中国于2001年加入世贸组织之前，在美国总贸易逆差中只占了不到四分之一;过去五年中，中国已经占到三分之二。彼得·纳瓦罗(Peter Navarro)是特朗普新组建的全国贸易委员会的主席，他认为贸易赤字拖累了美国经济。纳瓦罗说，如果消除这一赤字，美国的GDP总量会更大。他认为有个办法可以消除贸易赤字：挑战中国从货币干预到出口补贴等不公平贸易的做法。2012年，纳瓦罗发布了纪录片《致命中国》(Death by China)，如同贸易战的檄文。

Mr Navarro’s views rely on crude arithmetic that defies the most basic economic logic. In fact, big deficits often accompany fast growth. And it is misleading to focus on bilateral imbalances in an age of global supply chains. Counting the bits and pieces from other countries that go into “made in China” smartphones, fridges and televisions, China’s trade surplus with America is about a third smaller than officially reported.

纳瓦罗的观点基于粗略的计算，违背了最基本的经济逻辑。事实上，高逆差往往伴随着高增长而出现，而且在全球供应链的时代紧盯双边贸易失衡问题会有误导性。“中国制造”的智能手机、冰箱和电视机里有很多零部件来自其他国家，如果算上这些的话，中国对美国的贸易顺差比官方公布的结果要少三分之一。

Yet the gap ought perhaps to be smaller still. American companies insist that, with a level playing field, they would be able to sell much more to China. Some of the obstacles in their way are obvious. Carmakers, for instance, face 25% import tariffs. More often, barriers are subtler. Medical-device makers cite onerous licensing procedures and seed firms lengthy approvals.

然而，这一差距也许本应该更小一些。美国公司坚持认为，在公平竞争的环境下，它们能够向中国出口的产品要多得多。美国公司面临的贸易壁垒有些是显而易见的，例如，汽车制造商需缴纳25%的进口关税。但在更多情况下，贸易壁垒更为隐蔽，比如医疗器械制造商办理进口许可时程序繁琐，种子公司审批时间过长。

Indeed, America had been adopting a firmer approach to China on trade long before the election. Barack Obama’s administration stepped up pressure through the WTO. Of America’s 25 formal WTO complaints filed after 2008, 16 were against China. The administration also initiated 99 anti-dumping and countervailing-duty investigations against China, more than against any other country (see chart 2).

事实上，美国早在大选很久之前就已在贸易问题上对中国采取更为强硬的做法。奥巴马政府通过世贸组织施加了更多压力。2008年以后美国向世贸组织提出的25项正式投诉中，有16项是针对中国。奥巴马政府还对中国发起了99次反倾销和反补贴调查，多于任何其他国家(见图表2)。

China sees a pattern of unfair treatment. For Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the commerce ministry, what is wrong with the bilateral relationship is obvious: “American protectionism”. America has to cure its own ills and building walls won’t help, he says. Most emblematic is America’s decision to withhold “market-economy status” from China, which allows higher duties to be put on Chinese imports.

而中国则看到了一种不公平待遇。商务部研究员梅新育认为双边关系的症结显而易见，那就是“美国保护主义”。他说美国必须先解决自己的问题，搭建藩篱并无好处。这种保护主义最具代表性的动作是美国决定不给予中国“市场经济地位”，这样便可对进口自中国的产品征收更高的关税。

Chinese officials cite another example of unequal standards—the time-worn American complaint, made especially loudly by Mr Trump, that China fiddles its currency to cheapen its exports. China certainly does manage the yuan, but over the past decade it has let it appreciate by nearly two-fifths against a broad currency basket—more than any other big economy has.

中国官员还指出了另一个双重标准的例子——美国一直老生常谈地抱怨中国操纵货币以降低出口产品价格，特朗普喊得尤其大声。中国的确在管理人民币，但是在过去十年里，它已经让人民币对广泛的货币篮子升值了近五分之二，比任何其他大经济体的货币升值幅度都大。

Left to its own devices, the trade relationship between China and America should become more balanced in time. As China’s middle class grows, its consumers are buying more from abroad. Chinese demand for American agricultural products, especially soya beans, has boomed. China is already buying more services from America then vice versa. One of America’s biggest exports to China is education. The number of Chinese students in America has reached nearly 330,000—almost a third of all foreign students—and is up more than fivefold over the past decade.

顺其自然的话，中美贸易关系最终应该会变得更平衡。随着中国中产阶级的壮大，消费者会购买更多进口产品。中国对美国农产品(尤其是大豆)的需求一直在增长。而中国对美国的服务贸易已经为逆差;教育是美国对华最 大的出口产品之一，留美的中国学生人数已接近33万，几乎是外国学生总数的三分之一，而且在过去十年中增加了五倍多。

Battle lines 战线

But if Mr Trump carries out his most extreme threats and whacks a 45% across-the-board tariff on Chinese goods, trade flows between the two giants—the world’s biggest bilateral trading relationship—would shrivel. Collateral damage to the global economy would be immense. The very survival of the rules-based international trading system would be at stake.

但倘若特朗普果真兑现了他最偏激的威吓之言，对中国商品全面征收45%的关税，那么中美两大国之间的贸易往来就会萎缩，这一全球最 大的双边贸易关系的倒退会令全球经济连带遭受巨大损害，基于规则的国际贸易体系将岌岌可危。

China would, in a conventional analysis, suffer more in a trade war. About a fifth of its exports go to America, equating to nearly 4% of Chinese GDP. Less than a tenth of American exports go to China, worth less than 1% of American GDP. But a fight would also hit America hard. No other country could easily replace China in making many of the products, from toys to textiles, that fill American shops. Consumers would face sharply higher prices. American companies that have used China as a production base would struggle to reconfigure their supply chains. If American firms brought factories back home, prices would rocket. Goldman Sachs, an investment bank, estimates that the cost of producing clothing would increase by 46% and smartphones by 37%.

按照传统的分析，中国在贸易战中损失会更大。中国约五分之一的出口流向了美国，相当于中国GDP的近4%;而美国只有不到十分之一的出口流向中国，不到美国GDP的1%。但贸易战也将令美国遭受重创。美国的商场里摆满了中国制造的产品，从玩具到纺织品无不如此，在这一点上没有其他国家可以轻易地取代中国。消费者将面临价格暴涨的局面，以中国为生产基地的美国公司将必须重新配置供应链，困难重重。假如美国公司把工厂迁回本国，价格将会飙升。投资银行高盛估计，服装生产成本将增长46%，智能手机生产成本将增长37%。

Moreover, China would retaliate. Even if America as a whole runs a deficit, it has industries and companies that increasingly rely on Chinese demand. Nearly half its fruit and seed exports go to China. China is in some months the world’s biggest market for iPhones. Semiconductor-makers such as Qualcomm and Broadcom derive most of their revenues from China .

此外，中国一定会报复。即使美国对中国的贸易整体处于赤字，它的某些行业和企业还是日益依赖中国市场的需求。近一半的美国水果和种子都出口到中国;中国一度是全球最 大的iPhone销售市场;高通和博通等半导体制造商的大部分收入都来自中国。

上面的阅读素材大家都读懂了吧，题海战术虽然是老生常谈了，但不可否认它真的是很有效用。更多雅思阅读题目可以点击坦途网雅思考试频道来搜索，其他题型和解题技巧也都找得到哦！