GRE阅读练习： 下一场金融危机或被央行触发

>>GRE考试模拟：GRE阅读练习： 下一场金融危机或被央行触发

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The next financial crisis may be triggered by central banks.

下一场金融危机或被央行触发。

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As with London buses, don't worry if you miss a financial crisis; another will be along shortly.

如同伦敦公交车一样，如果错过了一场金融危机，别担心;下一场很快就会来。

The latest study on long-term asset returns from Deutsche Bank shows that crises in developed markets have become much more common in recent decades.

来自德意志银行的有关长期资产回报的最新研究表明，在发达国家，危机在近几十年中已经变得越来越常见了。

That does not bode well.

这不是好兆头。

Deutsche defines a crisis as a period when a country suffers one of the following: a 15% annual decline in equities; a 10% fall in its currency or its government bonds; a default on its national debt; or a period of double-digit inflation.

德意志银行把危机定义为国家遭受下列情况之一时的一段时间：股票15%的年化下跌;货币或政府债券10%的下跌;国家债务违约;或者是一段两位数的通胀时期。

During the 19th century, only occasionally did more than half of countries for which there are data suffer such a shock in a single year.

19世纪期间，只有偶尔超过半数的有数据的国家在单独一年中遭受一次这样的冲击。

But since the 1980s, in numerous years more than half of them have been in a financial crisis of some kind.

但是，自上世纪80年代以来，在很多年中，这些国家中的一半以上都处于某种金融危机之中。

The main reason for this, argues Deutsche, is the monetary system.

德意志银行指出，这方面的罪魁祸首是货币体系。

Under the gold standard and its successor, the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates, the amount of credit creation was limited.

在金本位制及其后续者——布雷顿森林体系的固定汇率之下，信用创造的总量是有限的。

A country that expanded its money supply too quickly would suffer a trade deficit and pressure on its currency's exchange rate; the government would react by slamming on the monetary brakes.

太快地扩张了货币供给的国家会遭受贸易赤字之苦以及对其货币汇率的压力;政府会应之以货币政策的急刹车。

The result was that it was harder for financial bubbles to inflate.

结果是，金融泡沫越来越难膨胀。

But since the early 1970s more countries have moved to a floating exchange-rate system.

但是，自上世纪70年代初以来，更多的国家转向了浮动汇率体系。

This gives governments the flexibility to deal with an economic crisis, and means they do not have to subordinate other policy goals to maintaining a currency peg.

这赋予政府应对经济危机的灵活性，而且还意味着他们不必为了维持货币挂钩而屈从于其他政策目标。

It has also created a trend towards GREater trade imbalances, which no longer constrain policymakers—the currency is often allowed to take the strain.

它还造成了一种走向更大的贸易不平衡的趋势，这种趋势不再去束缚决策者——货币经常受命来承担这种扭曲。

Similarly, government debt has risen steadily as a proportion of GDP since the mid-1970s.

同样地，作为GDP的一部分的政府债务自上世纪70年代中期以来一直在稳步上升。

There has been little pressure from the markets to balance the budget; Japan has had a deficit every year since 1966, and France since 1993.

很少有来自市场以平衡预算的压力;自1966年以来，日本年年赤字。自1993年以来，法国也是如此。

Italy has managed just one year of surplus since 1950.

自1950年以来，意大利用尽浑身解数，才只有一年盈余。

In the developed world, consumers and companies have also taken on more debt.

在发达国家，消费者和公司也背上了更多债务。

The result has been a cycle of credit expansion and collapse.

结果是一轮债务扩张和破灭的周期。

Debt is used to finance the purchase of assets, and the greater availability of credit pushes asset prices higher.

债务被用来资助资产购买，而且债务的可得性的增大也把资产价格推得更高。

From time to time, however, lenders lose faith in borrowers' ability to repay and stop lending; a fire sale of assets can follow, further weakening the belief in the creditworthiness of borrowers.

然而，不时地，债权人失去对债务人还本付息并停止举债的信心;一轮资产贱卖可能随之而来，进一步摧毁了对举债人信誉的信心。

Central banks then step in to cut interest rates or (since 2008) to buy assets directly.

之后，各国央行纷纷介入，或是降低利率，或是(自2008年以来)直接购入资产。

This brings the crisis to a temporary halt but each cycle seems to result in higher debt levels and asset prices.

这让危机得以暂时喘息，但是，每一轮周期似乎都以越来越高的债务水平和资产价格而收场。

The combined valuation of bonds and equities in the developed world is higher than ever before.

发达国家的债券和股票的综合估值比之前什么时候都高。

All this suggests that the financial system could be due another crisis.

这一切表明，金融体系可能是在劫难逃的下一场危机。

Deutsche makes several suggestions as to what might cause one, from a debt-related crash in China, through the rise of populist political parties to the problem of illiquidity in bond markets.

德意志银行对什么可能造成下一场危机提出多个建议，从中国方面的一场与债务有关的崩溃，经由各种民粹主义政党的兴起，到债券市场流动性不足的问题。

The most likely trigger for a sell-off is the withdrawal of support by central banks; after all, the monetary authorities are generally credited with having saved the global economy and markets in 2009.

最有可能的抛售导火索是来自各国央行的对于支持的撤回;毕竟，从总体上来说，各国货币当局被认为在2009年拯救是全球经济和市场。

In America the Federal Reserve is pushing up interest rates and reducing the size of its balance-sheet; the European Central Bank seems likely to cut the scale of its asset purchases next year; the Bank of England might even increase rates for the first time in more than a decade.

在美国，美联储正在推高利率并降低资产负债表的规模;欧洲央行似乎有可能消减下一年度的资产购买规模;英格兰银行甚至有可能十多年来第 一次升息。

Central banks are well aware of the dangers, of course; that is why interest rates are still so low, even though developed economies have been growing for several years.

当然，各国央行对危险有着清醒的认识;这就是即便发达经济体这几年一直在增长，利率为什么还是这么低的原因。

But the process of withdrawing stimulus is tricky.

但是，撤回刺激的过程存在难度。

A big sell-off in the government-bond markets in 1994 started when the Fed tightened policy after a period when rates were kept low during the savings-and-loan crisis.

1994年的一场政府债券市场的大规模抛售就是在美联储收紧了政策之际开始的，当时正值y一轮利率在那场储蓄和借贷危机中被维持在低位的周期之后。

The high level of asset prices means that any kind of return to “normal” valuation levels would constitute a crisis, on Deutsche's definition.

根据德意志银行的定义，高高在上的资产价格水平意味着向着“正常”估值水平的任何形式的回归都会造成一场危机。

That might mean that central banks are forced to change course and loosen policy again.

这可能表明，各国央行被迫转向并再次放宽政策。

But the process would take a little time; central banks will not want to appear too enslaved to the markets.

但是，这一过程会占用很少的时间;央行不想似乎过于受制于市场。

Many investors will want to ride out the volatility; that has been a winning strategy in the past.

许多投资者想要安然度过这波惊涛骇浪;过去曾有过一种制胜策略。

The problems will emerge among those investors who have borrowed money to buy assets—in America the volume of such debt exceeds the level reached in 2008.

问题将出现在那些用借来的钱购买资产的人之中——在美国，这类债务的总量远远超过2008年曾经达到的水平。

The big question is which is the most vulnerable asset class.

大问题是，哪一类是最脆弱的资产类别。

American mortgage-backed securities were the killers in 2008; it is bound to be something different this time round.

美国的抵押证券曾在2008年充当过杀手;这一次，肯定会是某种不一样的东西。

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